CAPTAIN TAREK DREAM: ‎[Report] Very informative and interesting analysis of the Egyptian 2011-2012 Parliamentary Elections vote count.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

‎[Report] Very informative and interesting analysis of the Egyptian 2011-2012 Parliamentary Elections vote count.

‎[Report] Very informative and interesting analysis of the Egyptian 2011-2012 Parliamentary Elections vote count. We strongly recommend reviewing this information to educate us on the path moving forward.
http://tinyurl.com/7fqleng

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By: Egyptians in the US

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Egyptians-in-the-US/281226348576804

Index	*Poverty Level*	*Voter Registration Rate*	*Voter Registration Gender Ratio*	*Urbanization Rate*
Correlation	0.0366	-0.0408	-0.0468	-0.0751

Index	*Average Age*	*Jobless Rate*	*Population Density*	*Literacy Rate*
Correlation	0.0055	-0.1422	0.2155	0.0812

Index	*No Degree*	*Pre-College Education*	*College or Higher Education*	*Students*
Correlation	-0.0030	-0.1744	0.1473	0.0325

Critical Correlation=0.297 (Significance Level:0.05)

2. Al-Nour Party

Al-Nour party has support among a very specific segment of the population. Al-Nour’s base seems to be males of younger age who do not have college degrees, or without an educational degree, not enrolled as students, less politically aware and living in low population density areas. This is in sharp contrast with the FJP (the other Islamist party) that enjoys wide support among the general population.

Index	*Poverty Level*	*Voter Registration Rate*	*Voter Registration Gender Ratio*	*Urbanization Rate*
Correlation	-0.0753	-0.3047	0.4871	-0.0813

Index	*Average Age*	*Jobless Rate*	*Population Density*	*Literacy Rate*
Correlation	-0.3564	-0.2995	-0.4528	0.1969

Index	*No Degree*	*Pre-College Education*	*College or Higher Education*	*Students*
Correlation	0.3140	-0.1728	-0.4125	-0.7238

Critical Correlation=0.304 (Significance Level:0.05)

3. Al-Wafd Party

Al-Wafd party’s base seems to be among the wealthier segment of the population.

Index	*Poverty Level*	*Voter Registration Rate*	*Voter Registration Gender Ratio*	*Urbanization Rate*
Correlation	-0.3326	-0.0483	-0.1089	-0.1553

Index	*Average Age*	*Jobless Rate*	*Population Density*	*Literacy Rate*
Correlation	0.0068	0.0522	-0.0615	-0.1937

Index	*No Degree*	*Pre-College Education*	*College or Higher Education*	*Students*
Correlation	-0.2266	0.1390	-0.1111	0.0962

Critical Correlation=0.301 (Significance Level:0.05)

4. The Egyptian Bloc

The Egyptian Bloc’s voter base seems to be students living in densely populated urbanized areas.

Index	*Poverty Level*	*Voter Registration Rate*	*Voter Registration Gender Ratio*	*Urbanization Rate*
Correlation	0.2044	0.2875	0.1595	0.4279

Index	*Average Age*	*Jobless Rate*	*Population Density*	*Literacy Rate*
Correlation	0.2574	0.1302	0.5844	-0.1687

Index	*No Degree*	*Pre-College Education*	*College or Higher Education*	*Students*
Correlation	-0.2534	0.0240	0.2242	0.4719

Critical Correlation=0.312 (Significance Level:0.05)

5. Al-Wasat Party

None of the demographic indices significantly correlate with the Al-Wasat’s vote share. This is an indication that its support base is not associated with a specific segment of the population.

Index	*Poverty Level*	*Voter Registration Rate*	*Voter Registration Gender Ratio*	*Urbanization Rate*
Correlation	-0.2058	-0.1284	-0.0453	0.2523

Index	*Average Age*	*Jobless Rate*	*Population Density*	*Literacy Rate*
Correlation	0.1652	-0.1720	0.0424	-0.1713

Index	*No Degree*	*Pre-College Education*	*College or Higher Education*	*Students*
Correlation	-0.1137	0.1246	0.0621	0.1565

Critical Correlation=0.304 (Significance Level:0.05)

6. Reform and Development Party (RDP)

The RDP enjoys the support of younger male population who did not earn a college degree and are less politically aware.

Index	*Poverty Level*	*Voter Registration Rate*	*Voter Registration Gender Ratio*	*Urbanization Rate*
Correlation	0.0752	-0.5171	0.4233	-0.1922

Index	*Average Age*	*Jobless Rate*	*Population Density*	*Literacy Rate*
Correlation	-0.4016	-0.1814	-0.1701	-0.1493

Index	*No Degree*	*Pre-College Education*	*College or Higher Education*	*Students*
Correlation	-0.1898	-0.0274	-0.4997	-0.0828

Critical Correlation=0.312 (Significance Level:0.05)

7. The Revolution Continues Alliance (RCA)

The RCA base seems to be among the more politically aware population.

Index	*Poverty Level*	*Voter Registration Rate*	*Voter Registration Gender Ratio*	*Urbanization Rate*
Correlation	-0.2862	0.3603	-0.0497	0.1560