WARNING : Hurricane Joaquin Upgraded to Category 4

Hurricane Joaquin strengthened into a Category 4 storm as it approached the Bahamas on Thursday afternoon.

Forecasts remained unclear as to whether it’s on track to make landfall on the East Coast or turn and head out to sea, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Despite that, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has declared a state of emergency for the state. South Carolina is already experiencing heavy rainfall.

WTNT31 KNHC 020841

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER  18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015

500 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS JOAQUIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT

BATTERS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...23.3N 74.7W

ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NE OF CLARENCE LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Central Bahamas

* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,

Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence

* The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern

Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Bimini

* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and

Caicos Islands

* Andros Island

* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Joaquin. A

Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was

located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 74.7 West. Joaquin is

drifting toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster

northward motion is expected to begin later today, followed by a

turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed tonight

and Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of the strongest winds

of Joaquin will continue moving over portions of the central and

northwestern Bahamas today. Joaquin will begin to move away from the

Bahamas tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher

gusts. Joaquin is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-

Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are

possible during the next 24 hours. Slow weakening is expected to

begin on Saturday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the

center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles

(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions

of the central and southeastern Bahamas through today. Hurricane

and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the

northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions will affect

other portions of the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos

Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions

of eastern Cuba through this morning.

STORM SURGE:  A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will

raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide

levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow.  A storm

surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the

remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area.  Near

the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous

waves.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 12 to 18 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum

amounts of 25 inches. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are

expected over the southeastern Bahamas, with 2 to 4 inches over the

northwestern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic,

and the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall could result in

life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the

Bahamas during the next few days. Swells have begun to affect

portions of the southeastern coast of the United States and will

spread northward along the east coast of the United States through

the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf

and rip current conditions. Regardless of Joaquin's track, a

prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will

affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune

erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult

products from your local weather office.